June 18, 2008

- Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire, although officials cautioned it was not a peace agreement. The cease-fire should end rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, and end the economic embargo that is crippling the Palestinian economy. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they held the right to defend themselves. The cease-fire does not deal with the captured soldier Gilhad Shalit, the arms build-up, or the Rafah border crossing.

-Meanwhile, Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert has expressed interest in resuming peace talks with Lebanon. The dispute is over a small piece of land Shabaa Farms that both Lebanon and Israel claim. Indirect negotiations continued between Syria and Israel. When Israel pulled out of Lebanon in May 2000, it kept Shabaa Farms because the UN said it was part of the Golan Heights. HizbAllah uses the land as a pretext for keeping its arms. Talks between Syria and Israel will continue next month at a conference in Paris.

- The New York Times ponders whether or not Senegal can retane its 48-record of peace. Social and political unrest are vexing the cuntry. Abdoulaye Wade came to power in 2000 after 4o years of socialist rule with a grand coaltion that has since collapsed. Most political parties, including the Democratic League-Labor Party- sat out the November 2007 legislative elections. Wade was re-elected to anuther five-yeer term. Beecuz he is now in his 80s, he is grooming his son Karim to become the next president. Donors and aid groups complain about the lack of transparency in funds. Economic groth remanes below the African average, the the gradiose projects that line the city have had little impact on the majority of the people.

- China and Japan reached an agreement that would allow joint exploration and development of gas reserves in the East China Sea. The area in contention contains less than 100 million barrels of oil but much more lies underneath.

-Meanwhile Taiwan's president Ma Ying-Jeau of the KMT party announced that he would like more economic ties with China. These include: an end to double taxation, more access for Taiwanese financial services, more tourism, the lifting of investment restrictions, and more charter flights. Ma will still have to work to find an agreement on "international space." Only 23 countries recognize Taipei. Taiwan has no seat at the UN or WHO, and has limited rights in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan continues to insist that China remove missles aimed at the renegade province before peace talks can begin. Ma's party soundly defeated the Democratic Progressive Party in elections this spring. He ran on a campaign of free-market reforms, and more economic ties with the maindland. He was also successfull in luring some voters in the southern part of the island by promising to facilitate the transport of crops there to the mainland.

- On June 10 a Japanese coast guard vessel rammed into a Taiwanese fishing boat, sinking it and tumbling 13 fishermen into the sea. All were rescued, but the incident forced Taiwan to recall its ambassador to Japan, Koh Se-Kai. Both prime minister Ma Ying-Jeau of Taiwan and the prime minister of Japan Yasuo Fukuda have called for an even-headed approach to diffuse the situation.

-The president of Russia, Dmitri Medvedev, warned Georgia not to harass Russian peacekeepers in the breakway Georgian province of Abkhazia. Abkhazia is officially part of Georgia but longs to become a part of Russia. Georgia claims Moscow wants to re-take the region, while Russia believes Tbilisi is planning its own invasion.

- The Taliban is on the run but the prison outbreak last week has kept them in the headlines. Even where they are strongest, however, they are on the retreat. 2300 US Marines helped British soldiers route Talbian fighters in the Garmser region. 200 fighters were killed in that operation. Now several hundred Taliban fighters are massing in the Arghandab region near Kandahar.

- The Economist reports plenty of good news out of Iraq. Violence among soldiers and civilians is down; Shia militias have signed cease fires; progress on laws regarding the distribution of oil revenues and the budget is being made; the Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds appear to be getting along. Muqtada al-Sadr's militias have accepeted a truce. To take part in elections later this year al-Sadr will have to disband all militias. Iraqi forces are steadily making progrss in the north near Mosul On the other hand al-Qaeda is still alive and well in Diyala and Ninevah. It continues to attack the Sunni awakening, a collection of Sunni tribal leaders who are fighting with the Americans. Prime minister Nuri al-Malaki's reputation has improved since he sent forces to Basra to quell his own Shia community. He's working on a "status-of-forces" agreement with America. The economy needs much improvement. 2.2 million Iraqis live outside the country, while another 3 million are internally displaced. There is a lack of entrepreneurs of compotent civil servants. The Sunnis still fear they will be left out in this year's elections. The Shia community is anything but united. And the Kurds are still waiting on a referendum on the status of Kirkuk.

- Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper issued an apology on June 11 to the country's Metis and Inuit people. Between 1870 and 1996 the Canadian government forcibly placed indigenous children in Christian boarding schools. In 2005 the government paid a $2 billion settlement.

- Famine continues to plague Ethiopia. Almost 10 million of the country's 80 million people need food aid. Hail storms, erradic rain, and insects have left southern Ethiopia starving. The average wage in this region is less than $1 per day. There are few opportunities for Ethipioans outside the state sector: a little tourism, qat, coffee, and horticulture. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi points to new electricity-generating projects and a declining mortality rate, but this is little solace for the 64 million Ethiopians who live off the land. Zenawai is also dealing with accusations of egregious human rights abuses in the Ogaden region. Poor weather, few private sector opportunities, outmoded farming practices, and an exploding population are making times tough in Ethiopia.

-Five years after the end of the civil war in Congo that claimed four million lives, matters are little better. The government is trying to dislodge both Laurent Nkunda's Tutu militia, as well as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu group responsible for the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. In the provinces of North and South Kivu there are rumors that the UN peacekeepers are helping the DFLR. Joseph Kibila, the democratically-elected president, uses violence and repression to quell the fractured opposition. Jean-Pierre Bemba, the runner up in the elections, has been arrested in Belgium and is now awaiting trial at the Hague.

-There is some good news coming out of Algeria. Algeria has cleared foreign debt, unemployment is only 12%, energy exports are up, and power generation is going to increase by 50% by 2013. The number of attacks is down; the number of companies doing business in the country is up. However, unemployment among youth, a housing shortage, rising food prices, and clashes between Arabs and Berbers still make the return of civil war a possibility, albiet a remote one.