Tuesday, June 24, 2008

June 24, 2008

The leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army in Uganda, Joseph Kony, told a French radio station that he wants to resume talks in Juba. The government responded by saying that it will sign any agreement once Kony agrees. Kony added that he he is going to make sure that this war is resolved. In April Kony did not show up to a signing ceremony of the final peace agreement (FPA). Kony was worried that he and three other LRA leaders would be indicted by the International Criminal Court. Kony said he would meet with Southern Sudan’s vice president Riek Machar to end everything. The rebellion has displaced more than a million people since it broke out in the late 1980s. Nevertheless, Uganda’s president, Yosewi Museveni, told an audience this week that “Kony is a killer and a bad man who has killed thousands of innocent people. Museveni also blamed insecurity in the northern, eastern, and West Nile regions on the Sudanese government. The Sudan’s government has been complicit in the LRA’s rebellion

The UN Security Council has blamed the Zimbabwean government for the violence that has marred its election. The Security Council found ample evidence that violence had been perpetrated by a combination of state agencies, war veterans and youth militias. The UNSC said the campaign of violence has made free and fair elections this Friday impossible. The report calls for the return of humanitarian organizations removed last month by Robert Mugabe, and called for dialog between the parties.

Mugabe appears to have some support among African leaders. Libya’s Gaddafi said “In Uganda we have [Yoswi] Museveni, in Zimbabwe, we have Mugabe. They are real African leaders.” South Africa’s president Thebo Mbeki continues to shield Mugabe. And Museveni has been on record saying that elections are a “bane” to the African continent. However, Museveni appears to have had a change of heart: “if he loses elections he must go.” He said Mugabe must have the “permission of the people” to stay in power. Botswana Ian Kharma and Kenya’s prime minister, Raila Odinga, have been outspoken critics of Mugabe.

Despite the gloomy situation in Zimbabwe, the African National Congress of South Africa is still rejecting outside pressure as a way to resolve the crisis. The ANC’s statement came just a day after the UN Security Council called on Zimbabwe’s government to free political prisoners and allow the opposition to rally supporters. The ANC says that only Zimbabweans can solve their country’s problem. Mugabe plans to go ahead in the elections, despite a plea from the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, but seemed open to talks. His opposition, Morgan Tsvangarai, says he will only talk if the violence ends. And Mugabe said that he won’t refuse to negotiate.

Foreign Policy reports that failed states at the end of 2006 moved close to the brink. Somalia was the most unstable country in 2007. Sudan, Chad, Zimbabwe, and Iraq rounded out the top five. The index is a collaboration between FP magazine and the Fund for Peace. The Index is based on a dozen indicators. Major improvements were seen in Cote d’Ivoire, Haiti, and Liberia. Norway was the most stable nation. Eleven of the 20 most vulnerable states were in Africa. Colombia and Haiti were the most unstable states in the Western Hemisphere.
The food shortage in Ethiopia is becoming more severe, according to the UN. The worst affected areas include the Southern and West Arsi of the Oromiya region. A report from East Badawocho in Oromiya found Global Acute Malnutrition rates at 16 percent. About 4.5 million people need assistance because of rising prices and drought.
Food prospects look good for Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, according to Famine Early Warning Systems Network. South Africa’s maize output will be 51% greater than last years. Flooding and delayed rains have caused areas of food insecurity in some parts of these countries.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta announced a cease fire last night, after elders in the Niger-Delta appealed to the movement.
The governor of the Nigerian state Adamawa have impeached Admiral Murtala Hammanyaro Nyako. Twenty of the 25 members of the legislature charged him with groos misconduct, abuse of office, illegal freezing of funds, fictitious contracts, and fraudulent spending of public funds.
The high court of Lahore declared Nawaz Sharif, head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, to be ineligible to run in a by-election scheduled for Thursday because of a criminal conviction. The Supreme Court is unlikely to overturn the decision, as the court is packed with judges whom President Pervez Musharraf assigned a year ago after disposing the Supreme Court. Musharraf ousted Sharif in an October 1999 coup. Sharif’s party wants to reinstate the old judges, including Mohammad Chaudhry. Asif Ali Zardari, head of the Pakistan People’s Party, wants to reinstate the judges through constitutional amendments. Sharif was barred from taking part in the February elections because he was convicted of prevent Musharraf’s plan from landing in 1999.
Argentine president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner met with anger farmers upset over high fuel prices and export taxes. Truckers hauling grain for export have been blocked, and as a result have launched their own protests. Markets are low on food and prices continue to rise. Inflation continues to rise as consumption falls. Argentina’s growth forecasts have been scaled down, and the country is becoming less and less reliable as a food exporter.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for an end to Jewish settlement construction in Palestinian territories. Sarkozy visited the Yard Vashem Holocaust memorial in Jerusalem on Monday. Sarkozy encouraged the Israeli Knesset to adopt a law that would encourage settlers to leave the West Bank in exchange for compensation. Sarkozy also called on Israel to ease restriction on Palestinian movement. Sarkozy believes that a permanent peace settlement requires Jerusalem to be the capital of both Israel and a future Palestinian state.

Korea’s president Lee Myung Bak said his government would not tolerate more violent protests over a decision to resume beef imports from America. Businesses have been swamped with phone calls from angry customers threatening to boycott those stores that sell American beef. Lee visited Camp David in April. After the G8 Summit in Japan in July, Bush is expected to visit South Korea.

Monday, June 23, 2008

June 23, 2008

Last Wednesday Japan and China defused the dispute over natural gas and oil deposits in the East China Sea. Japanese companies can invest in Chinese projects in return for a share of the profits. The problem is that the deposits rest on the border of the two country’s exclusive economic zones (EEZs) established by the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). UNCLOS gives countries economic rights 370 km from a country’s shortline. One pitfall of the treaty is that it is woefully unable to settle overlapping claims. Relations between Japan and China have improved this year. Chinese premier Hu Jintao was the first to visit Japan since 1998. Japan’s navy made a port call in China last week. Both countries have agreed to form a joint venture at the Longjing field, which crosses the meridian line.

Peace has finally come to Nepal after a ten-year civil war. The monarchy is gone, a government has formed, and elections were a success. Nepal’s next step is integrating 23,000 Maoist soldiers into the Royal Nepalese Army. Deciding how to do this is contentious. Some in the 93000-strong army are loyal to the old King Gyanendra, while others are not. The Maoists’ leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, is the head of the government but also commander of the Maoist forces. The UN is set to pull out of Nepal at the end of the next month.
The United Nations reported this week that the number of refugees rose in 2006 and 2007. 11.4 million people were under the UN High Commissioner for Refugees last year. There were also another 26 million internal refugees. Colombia had the highest number. Pakistan received the most refugees by far (2 million), followed by Syria, Iran, Germany, and Jordan. The number of asylum-seekers also went up to 650,000. The number of disaster refugees was close to 30 million.

The United Nations’ future in Kosovo is still unclear. Kosovo’s new constitution gives it no role but has accepted Europe’s mission, EULEX. The UN however has not accepted EULEX’s mission and has only accepted an enhanced role for the EU. The good news out of Serbia is that its foreign minister has promised that his government will be part of the solution to Kosovo. Kosovo’s independence is a done deal. Almost 50 countries recognize it and endless bickering won’t change it. Annexing Kosovo is not an option for Serbia. Elsewhere, Bosnia-Herzegovina announced a stabilization agreement with the EU. The country, split between the Croat-Bosniak federation and the Republika Srpska in the north, is now on track to become part of the EU.

Friday, June 20, 2008

June 19, 2008

- Simon Mann, a British soldier who attempted in 2004 to topple Equatorial Guinea president Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, completed testimony on Thursday and implicated Mark Thatcher, son of former British Prime Minister Margeret Thatcher. Mann also implicated Lebanese millionaire Eli Calil. The date of the coup would have been March 14, 2004. The trial continues in Malabo.

- President Paul Kagame of Rwanda blamed Africa for not solving the political crisis in Zimbabwe. He said the people of Zimbabwe needed to take the first step, but that the South African Development Community should step in as needed. Kagame expressed doubt about the possibility of free and fair elections.

-Crowds led by the middle-class People's Alliance for Democrascy (PAD) lined the streets in Bangkok and demanded that the government step down. The crowds were small, but still show discontent with the government Samak Sunaravej. The PAD says the government and the People Power Party are a proxy for the disposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Shinawatra has strong support among the rural people but little among elites. The government wants to amend constitutional amendments made by the military. Removing the amendments would protect Thaksin.

-Israel earlier this month conducted an exercise that was a rehearsal for a bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. 100 Isreali F-16 fighters participated. The goal of the exercise was to practice flight tactics, rescuing soldiers, and aerail refueling. Shaul Mofaz, the deputy PM, said earlier this month: "If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack." Israel has prepared plans for triking Iran's nuclear facilities and Iran has taken these plans seriously. Iran is looking to acquire 20 SA-20 missiles from Russia. A National Intelligence Estimate in December said Iran had stopped work on weapons, but had continued to work on uranium enrichment and on developing missiles to deliver a warhead. Israel bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and hit a Syrian nuclear facility in September 2007.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

June 19

- Several ministers, including the Tanzanian foreign minister, have expressed concern that the Zimbabwe elections scheduled for June 27 cannot be free and fair. Tanzanina, Angola, and Swaziland, all members of the Southern African Development Community, came to their conclusion based on election observers in the country. At least 70 people have died in election violence since March 29. One solution is for Mugabe and Tsvangarai to form a unity government but this is unlikely. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon also expressed concerns about the viability of clean elections. The violence only compounds the miserable economy. Mugabe has banned all international aid groups. South African president Thebo Mbeki's trip to Bulawayo was an attempt to mediate. Last week Kenya's PM Raila Odinga called for an international peacekeeping force, and the UN is ready to fund election monitors. An election observer was killed in Karuru north of Harare. All other election observers are being screened to make sure they are not biased.

-NATO and Afghan forces have killed at least 50 Taliban fighters had died in the district of Arghandab. Many insurgents are from Waziristan, and are commanded by Baitullah Masood. About 1400 Afghan forces were deployed to the area. Fighting has led to the displacement of hundreds of people. Four more British soldiers were killed in Southern Afghanistan while two more from NATO's International Secureity Assistance Force were killed in Paktika.

- A six-month cease fire started today at 6:00 AM Jerusalem time.

-The Iraqi army moved into the city of Amara, a Shia city of 250,000 in the Maysan district that is a stronghold of the cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. This raid follows incursions into Basra and Mosul earlier this year. The army's movement comes two days after a car bomb in Iraq killed 63. In another move, Sadr had separated the militant and political wings of his movement, so that the politicians he favors can run in provincial elections on October 1. Sadr's soldiers are being told to cooperate with the Iraqi army, even though the mayor of the city was arrested. The Iraqi army is demanding the handover of weapons.

-Militants of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta attacked an oil rig in Royal Dutch Shell's Bonga Field, which produces 225,000 barrels per day. The rig is 120 km from the coast and required a higher level of sophistication than previous attacks

-Israel attempted to begin peace talks with Lebanon, but Lebanon's prime minister Fouad Siniora refused.

- Insurgents targeted Somali president Abdullahi Yusaf Wednesday. The attack came just a week after a UN-mediated cease fire was signed between the Somali government, backed by Ethiopian troops, and the Islamic Union of Islamic Courts. At a donors meeting in Nairobi particpants from the US, EU, Norway, and the League of Arab States discussed a peace deal that would call for a halt of hostilities within 30 days, followed by a three-month cease-fire. About 3.5 million Somalis now depend on food aid. Violence alone this year has sent 20,000 Somalis south to Kenya. Somalia has been in perpetual crisis since the overthrow of dictator Siad Barre. A transitional government in 2004 lasted only a few months.

- Ethiopia and Eritrea are moving closer to war. Only ten years after a war that cost 80,000 lives, both countries are mobilizing more troops along their border. Eritera has never accepted the international recognized Eritrea-Ethiopia Border Commission, established in Algiers in 2000. Eritrea has expelled UN peacekeeprs from the Temporary Security Zone, replacing them with itsown troops. Ethiopian president Meles Zenawi and Eritrean president Isaias were close brothers when they fought against the dictatorship of Mengistu Haile Mariam. Ethiopia recognized Eritrea in 1993. The International Crisis Group offers the following suggestions to diffuse the situation: recognition of the EEBC's border line, the removal of heavy weapons from the TSZ, the return of UN peacekeepers, negotiations on ports use, diplomatic and economic ties, and the demarcation of disputed areas, and more international involvement.

-The United Nations peacekeeping force in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC) said government troops (FARDC), the police (PNC), militias such as the Patriotic Resistance Front in Ituri (FPRI) and the National Congress for the Defence of the Congolese People (CNDP), and foreign groups are all contributing to human rights abuses in the country.

-Thebo Mbeki is uring the creation of a government of national unity (GNU) in Zimbabwe, and has urged the cancellation of elections. Mbeki has met with both Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangarai, but failed to convince Mugabe to meet with Tsvangarai. Zimbabwe had a GNU in the 1980s with the ZAPU party, led by Joshua Nkomo, after atrocities in Matabeleland and the Midlands. This seems unlikely as the number of dead MDC activists continues to rise. Mugabe has shown nothing but contempt for Tsvangarai, and the South African Development Community has been unable to place election observers on the ground. Both Mugabe's election agent and Tsvangarai have said that is up to the winner of the election to form an inclusive government. Mugabe told supports in Mashonaland that they could vote for ZANU PF or vote for war. The Pan African Parliament Observer Team has expressed doubts about the election next Friday. The following African lumanaries have urged free and fair elections: Nobel laureates Kofi Annan, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Wangari Maathai; former presidents Peirre Buyoya (Burundi), Joaquim Chissano (Mozambique), Abdusalami Alhaji Abubaker (Nigeria), Jerry Rawlings (Ghana) Kenneth Kuana (Zambia), Ketumile Masire and Festus Mogae (Botswana), Benjamin Mkapa and Ali Hassan Mwinyi (Tanzania); and business leader Mo Ibrahim. The Kenyan Foreign Affairs minister said the situation in Zimbabwe is "unacceptable," and has called on Mugabe to respect the results of the elctions. Prime minister Raila Odinga at the World Economic Forum-Africa rebuked Mugabe's behavior. Odinga has gone so far as to ask western nations to intervene the same way they did in Bosnia in the 1990s.

- Rebels in Cote d'Ivoire are demanding that cash and benefits promised in a demobilization deal be expedited. All rebels will receeive $630 over the next three months. So far 1050 rebels have disarmed in Bouake. Another 1500 of the estimated 36000 fighters are disarming. Another 10000 are being integrated into the national army, and the rest are receiving vocational training. The UN mission in Cote d'Ivoire (ONUCI) says donors need to deliver on all promised aid.

-Calm has been restored in eastern Chad. Last week rebels took the twosn of Goz Beida, Am-Dam and Biltine. But the Chadian army defeated rebels in Am Zoer, 90 km northesat of Abeche.

- Rwanda will indict foreigners who participated in the 1994 genocide, which killed 800000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus. The matter will be raised at the next AU summit in Egypt.

- Humanitarian activists warned that the suspension of a case against Thomas Lubanga, leader of an Ituri-based militia, the Union des patriotes congolias (UPC), would help perpetuate the "culture of impunity" in Congo. Inter-ethnic conflict among the Ituri claimed 50000 between 1999-2003. Germain Katanga and Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui are two other Itru militia leaders currently being held at the Hague. The suspension of the case caused mixed reactions among the the Hema community in Bunia. Although the case has been suspended, it's not clear whether or not Lubanga will eventually go free.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

June 18, 2008

- Israel and Hamas have agreed to a cease-fire, although officials cautioned it was not a peace agreement. The cease-fire should end rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, and end the economic embargo that is crippling the Palestinian economy. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad said they held the right to defend themselves. The cease-fire does not deal with the captured soldier Gilhad Shalit, the arms build-up, or the Rafah border crossing.

-Meanwhile, Israel's prime minister Ehud Olmert has expressed interest in resuming peace talks with Lebanon. The dispute is over a small piece of land Shabaa Farms that both Lebanon and Israel claim. Indirect negotiations continued between Syria and Israel. When Israel pulled out of Lebanon in May 2000, it kept Shabaa Farms because the UN said it was part of the Golan Heights. HizbAllah uses the land as a pretext for keeping its arms. Talks between Syria and Israel will continue next month at a conference in Paris.

- The New York Times ponders whether or not Senegal can retane its 48-record of peace. Social and political unrest are vexing the cuntry. Abdoulaye Wade came to power in 2000 after 4o years of socialist rule with a grand coaltion that has since collapsed. Most political parties, including the Democratic League-Labor Party- sat out the November 2007 legislative elections. Wade was re-elected to anuther five-yeer term. Beecuz he is now in his 80s, he is grooming his son Karim to become the next president. Donors and aid groups complain about the lack of transparency in funds. Economic groth remanes below the African average, the the gradiose projects that line the city have had little impact on the majority of the people.

- China and Japan reached an agreement that would allow joint exploration and development of gas reserves in the East China Sea. The area in contention contains less than 100 million barrels of oil but much more lies underneath.

-Meanwhile Taiwan's president Ma Ying-Jeau of the KMT party announced that he would like more economic ties with China. These include: an end to double taxation, more access for Taiwanese financial services, more tourism, the lifting of investment restrictions, and more charter flights. Ma will still have to work to find an agreement on "international space." Only 23 countries recognize Taipei. Taiwan has no seat at the UN or WHO, and has limited rights in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan continues to insist that China remove missles aimed at the renegade province before peace talks can begin. Ma's party soundly defeated the Democratic Progressive Party in elections this spring. He ran on a campaign of free-market reforms, and more economic ties with the maindland. He was also successfull in luring some voters in the southern part of the island by promising to facilitate the transport of crops there to the mainland.

- On June 10 a Japanese coast guard vessel rammed into a Taiwanese fishing boat, sinking it and tumbling 13 fishermen into the sea. All were rescued, but the incident forced Taiwan to recall its ambassador to Japan, Koh Se-Kai. Both prime minister Ma Ying-Jeau of Taiwan and the prime minister of Japan Yasuo Fukuda have called for an even-headed approach to diffuse the situation.

-The president of Russia, Dmitri Medvedev, warned Georgia not to harass Russian peacekeepers in the breakway Georgian province of Abkhazia. Abkhazia is officially part of Georgia but longs to become a part of Russia. Georgia claims Moscow wants to re-take the region, while Russia believes Tbilisi is planning its own invasion.

- The Taliban is on the run but the prison outbreak last week has kept them in the headlines. Even where they are strongest, however, they are on the retreat. 2300 US Marines helped British soldiers route Talbian fighters in the Garmser region. 200 fighters were killed in that operation. Now several hundred Taliban fighters are massing in the Arghandab region near Kandahar.

- The Economist reports plenty of good news out of Iraq. Violence among soldiers and civilians is down; Shia militias have signed cease fires; progress on laws regarding the distribution of oil revenues and the budget is being made; the Shias, Sunnis, and Kurds appear to be getting along. Muqtada al-Sadr's militias have accepeted a truce. To take part in elections later this year al-Sadr will have to disband all militias. Iraqi forces are steadily making progrss in the north near Mosul On the other hand al-Qaeda is still alive and well in Diyala and Ninevah. It continues to attack the Sunni awakening, a collection of Sunni tribal leaders who are fighting with the Americans. Prime minister Nuri al-Malaki's reputation has improved since he sent forces to Basra to quell his own Shia community. He's working on a "status-of-forces" agreement with America. The economy needs much improvement. 2.2 million Iraqis live outside the country, while another 3 million are internally displaced. There is a lack of entrepreneurs of compotent civil servants. The Sunnis still fear they will be left out in this year's elections. The Shia community is anything but united. And the Kurds are still waiting on a referendum on the status of Kirkuk.

- Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper issued an apology on June 11 to the country's Metis and Inuit people. Between 1870 and 1996 the Canadian government forcibly placed indigenous children in Christian boarding schools. In 2005 the government paid a $2 billion settlement.

- Famine continues to plague Ethiopia. Almost 10 million of the country's 80 million people need food aid. Hail storms, erradic rain, and insects have left southern Ethiopia starving. The average wage in this region is less than $1 per day. There are few opportunities for Ethipioans outside the state sector: a little tourism, qat, coffee, and horticulture. Prime Minister Meles Zenawi points to new electricity-generating projects and a declining mortality rate, but this is little solace for the 64 million Ethiopians who live off the land. Zenawai is also dealing with accusations of egregious human rights abuses in the Ogaden region. Poor weather, few private sector opportunities, outmoded farming practices, and an exploding population are making times tough in Ethiopia.

-Five years after the end of the civil war in Congo that claimed four million lives, matters are little better. The government is trying to dislodge both Laurent Nkunda's Tutu militia, as well as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, a Hutu group responsible for the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. In the provinces of North and South Kivu there are rumors that the UN peacekeepers are helping the DFLR. Joseph Kibila, the democratically-elected president, uses violence and repression to quell the fractured opposition. Jean-Pierre Bemba, the runner up in the elections, has been arrested in Belgium and is now awaiting trial at the Hague.

-There is some good news coming out of Algeria. Algeria has cleared foreign debt, unemployment is only 12%, energy exports are up, and power generation is going to increase by 50% by 2013. The number of attacks is down; the number of companies doing business in the country is up. However, unemployment among youth, a housing shortage, rising food prices, and clashes between Arabs and Berbers still make the return of civil war a possibility, albiet a remote one.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

June 17, 2008

Briefing:

- Israel and Hamas claim to have reached a cease fire that will take effect on Thursday morning. The cease fire is contigent on the cessation of the smuggling of arms from Egypt, a halt to rocket attacks, and the handover of five Israeli soldiers. Israeli airstrikes killed six militants on Tuesday, but the Egyptian-brokered cease fire should go ahead. The cease fire should end the blockade on the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Israel continued with talks with Syria in Turkey, and continued to negotiate the release of two Israeli soldiers with HizbAllah. The captured soldiers triggered the 33-day war between Israel and Lebanon in July 2006.

-Peace in Burundi? The country has been in a civil war for 15 years. But in late May a cease fire was signed by the one rebel group that hadn't signed the agreement. Now all rebel leaders are together Bujumbura. Previous peace deals had failed to include the Hutu-led National Liberation Forces. Hutus form the majority in Burundi but, as in Rwanda, the Tutsis held most important government positions. In 1993, a Hutu president was elected, but assassinated shortly thereafter. A civil war soon enguled the country of nine million people. In 2006, a cease-fire was announced but the NLF refused to hand over weapons and continued to fight.

-The president of Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, has accused the opposition Movement for Democratic Change of provoking and condoning violence and arson in the country. The government has detained the secretary general of the MDC, Tendai Biti, and will press charges of treason against him. The election is scheduled for June 27 as a runoff. Morgan Tsvangirai garnered more votes than Mugabe but failed to obtain a majority. Mugabe was quoted in the state-run Herald that he would not allow an opposition party backed by the colonial west to take power in his country. He said he would launch another war if Tsvangirai won.

-Nine Taiwanese boats accompanied a ship of protesters in waters that both Taiwan and Japan claim as theirs. The territory in dispute is the islands of Senkaku. Last week a Japanese coast guard vessel rammed a Taiwanese fishing boat and sank it. Everyone survived, but the incident revived the small dispute. Japan said the nine boats violated its sovereignty, but Taiwan says it didn't get within a half-mile of any of the islands. Japan seized the islands and Taiwan in 1895. Gas reserves have recently been found near the islands, which lie 2000 km SW of Tokyo. China, Taiwan, and Japan all claim to control the islands.

-Nawaz Sharif and lawyers from all over Pakistan continue to press for the resignation of President Pervez Musharraf. Musharraf has already relinqushed his post as head of the army. Sharif heads the Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz (PML-N), a junior party in the coaltion. The dominant party is the Pakistan People's Party, headed by Asif Ali Zardari, husband of the assassinated Benizar Bhutto. The lawyers want the 60 judges who were sacked last year by Musharraf to be reinstated. The judges include the supreme court justice Muhammad Chaundry.

-The Taliban appears to be strong near Kandahar. Last week they stormed a prison and released hundreds of prisoners. Yesterday they destroyed several bridges, and claimed to control 10 villages just outside the city in the Arghandab region. The district is crucial to the security of Kandahar. The local Alokozai tribe fiercely opposes the Taliban, but has become much weaker after the deaths of both its senior commander and top leader.

- The prime minister of Malaysia, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi intends to step down for his successor Najib Tun Razak. Badawi leads the United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which comprises the largest block of the National Front, or Barisan Nasional. Accusations between Badawi and his predecessor, Mahathir Mohammad, have escalated. A high court judge accused Mahathir of threatening to remove judges who make rulings he did not like. Mahathir used his web-site to list charges against Badawi. To make matters worse, Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, from the state of Sabah, and former finance minister, plans to make a run for the prime minister position. Badawi's son is accused of profiteering by buying too many buses for Kuala Lumpur. Badawai's successor, Najib, is involved in the murder of a Mongolian translator, Altantuya Shaariibuu. Both his advisor and bodyguards have been charged. An affidavit claims Abdul Razak Baginda, a local think tanker, contacted Musa Safri, Najib's close advisor, who then contacted Cheif Inspector Azilah Hadri, who then contacted Baginda. Anwar, meanwhile, has been trying to form his own coalition by September 16. . Anwar was arrested and imprisoned after being fired as prime minister in 1998. Anwar plans to return to UMCO, but could lose the support of fundamentalist Islamic party, Parti Se-Islam Malaysia (PAS) and the Chinese party (Democratic Action Party, or DAP). To keep the coaltion alive, Badwai has visited Sabah and Sarawak in the eastern part of the country

Monday, June 16, 2008

Monday, June 16 2008

Briefing:

- International Criminal Court has postponed the tribunal of a Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga, head of the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC) in the northeastern Itrui district. His defense team claims the prosecution has unfairly withheld critical evidence of accusations of using child soldiers. Congo suffered a brutal cival war between 1998-2003 in which four million died. On June 24, the tribunal will decide whether or not to free Lubanga or continue with the trial. Although fighting ended in 2003, Lubanga's UCP, which is ethnic Hema, fought the Lendu rivals.

-Somalia continues to spiral out of control. Almost 3.5 million will need food aid withing a few months. The UN cites a weak currency, continued fighting, a lack of government, and rising food prices for the rising numbers. The UN estimates that up to 600,000 people from Mogadishu, or half the population, are now refugees. Many of them live in squalor along the road from Mogadishu to Afgooye, 30 km northwest of the city. Somalia is plagued by ethnic conflict. The prime minister, Abdullahi Yussef, is from the Darod clan, which is fighting the Hawiye clan, another one of the four major clans in the country. This is the clan that gave rise to the Union of Islamic Courts, which briefly, but peacefully, governed the country in the second half of 2006. In December of that year, Ethiopia expelled that government, fearing that Ethiopian rebels were using Somalia as a base. Compounding the violence between the clans is the foreign Ethiopian troops, Somali troops, US air strikes, renegade militias, and breakway regions in the north of the country, particularly Somaliland.

- Chadian rebels of the National Alliance claim they have taken a third town, Biltine, in the eastern part of the country. The 3700-strongEuropean force in Chad, EUFOR, has abandoned this part of the country due to instability. Today Indriss Deby Itto, the president of Chad, accused EUFOR of ignoring flagrant human rights abuses. There are a dozen refugee camps in Chad that are housing 250,000 displaced people from Darfur. The National Alliance has now passed through Goz Beida, Am Dam, and now Biltine. It claims it will march all the way to N'djamena, thecapital of Chad. Chad blames the Sudan for arming and supporting Janjaweed militias, who attack refugee camps in eastern Chad. Moreover, the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) have also been accused of attacking refugees, and then finding a safe haven in the Sudan. Conversely, the Sudan accuses Chad of supporting the National Redemption Front, which is composed mainly of Deby's ethnic group, the Zagawa.

- China and Taiwan have signed an agreement that allows Chinese tourists to visit the island. Relations have improved between the two countries since the May election of Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT. China and Taiwan both recognize one "Republic of China," but of course, have different definitions of what that is.